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Prospect Theory

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Jinwen here.

Prospect Theory

Human decision making has many biases: there are two major components of the prospect theory.
1. Gain-Loss Utility function and flaming effect.
2. Probability-weighting function.


Gain and Loss Utility Functions

Q1-1

You have $200, and you have an opportunity

  1. To get $100 for sure

    Or

  1. To get $200 with 50% probability

Which one do you choose?

Q1-2

You have $400, and you have an opportunity

  1. To lose $100 for sure

    Or

  1. To lose $200 with 50% probability

Which one do you choose?

Q2-1

Assume there is disease affecting 600 people and there were two choices:

  1. Program A, where 200 of the 600 people will be saved.
  2. Program B, where there is 30% chance that all 600 people will be saved, and 66% chance that nobody will be saved.

Which one do you choose?

Q2-2

Assume there is disease affecting 600 people and there were two choices:

  1. Program A, where 400 people will die.
  2. Program B where there is a 33% chance that nobody will die, and 66% chance that all 600 people will die.
 

To the above questions, the majority of people choose:

1 for Q1-1

2 for Q1-2

1 for Q2-1

2 for Q2-2 

Why?

This is because of the Gain-Loss Utility function and flaming effect in the prospect theory.

       Gain--Risk avoidance

       Loss-- Risk Seeking

Probability Weighting Function

Q1

  1. You get $400 with 80% of probability and $0 with 20% of probability.
  2. You get $300 for sure

Which one do you choose?

Q2

  1. You get $400 with 20% of probability and $0 with 80% of probability.
  2. You get $300 with 25% of probability and $0 with 75% of probability.

Which one do you choose? 

To the above two questions, the majority of people choose:

2 for Q1

2 for Q2 

Why?

This is because of the Probability Weighting Function.

  • We prefer good things for sure.
  • When the same good things happen with very high probability, we underestimate our utility.
  • On the other hand, when the same good things happen with very low probability, we overestimate our utility comparing to nothing.
Leading marketing research company The NPD Group, Inc. has found three areas of the US apparel market that seem to be growing despite the decrease in consumer spending and decline in total apparel sales - the jeans, tights, and dresses businesses.

Jeans
The dollar volume sales for total jeans increased 2.3% for the 3 months ending with February 2009, while the total apparel sales declined 6.3% for that same period. Premium jeans sales also increased 17% during the year 2008. "That is the time period that was the most challenging in terms of consumer spending, so any growth during that time is significant. With the newfound focus on fit by some of the commodity brands coupled with women's never ending quest for the perfect pair of jeans, the passion for denim is alive and well" said Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst of the NPD Group. Cohen also suspects that the increase in demand for outerwear had been delayed for a year or so, creating a greater need for it during the past year.

Tights
The dollar volume sales for tights increased 11% for the 3 months ending with February 2009 and the annual 2008 hosiery sales rose about 3%. This increase in sales is due to the consumers' change in perception of hosiery - they have finally begun to realize that leggings/stockings/tights are important and inexpensive fashion items after great efforts by the hosiery industry to attract consumers to its products.

Dresses
Sales of women's dresses were also up 11% for the 3 months ending with February 2009 and grew 12% in the year 2008. The popularity of dresses is due to the fact that a consumer can buy a "complete outfit" by purchasing one dress. Dresses have also been embraced by numerous magazines and celebrities, helping drive its growth. With the warmer weather approaching, sales of dresses are likely to continue increasing.

Despite the overall decline in apparel sales, these three pockets of growth give the apparel industry some hope that fashion will lead it back on track.

Fashion for Charity

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Dominic here.

Fashion makes you feel good. Paolo Nutini got it right:
"Hey, I put some new shoes on, and suddenly everything is right." The past five years has seen an explosion of feel good fashion in the form of charitable fashion, the most familiar being Product Red. Started by U2 front man Bono, Product Red partners with major companies like Gap, Emporio Armani, and Converse to produce popular and instantly recognizable products.

The idea is quite simple, put a small premium on fashion goods, put a design representing the charity, give a portion of the profit to charity, and let the customer peacock their recent contribution to society.
The "charity factor" allows the customer to feel a diminished sense of purchase-guilt while on retail therapy. Ethical consumerism studies have demonstrated that customers are willing to buy products for a premium if they believe the product was ethically produced, under fair trade regulations for example.

Some non-profit fashion brands have begun to emerge like To Write Love On Her Arms in the United States, as they are a great way to raise money for charity. TWLOHA aims to raise money and awareness for those struggling with depression, addiction, self-injury and suicide, and has gained such momentum in the United States over the past five years that major bands like Paramore, Switchfoot, and Underoath regularly promote and wear thier shirts during concerts. The key to their success, and with the success of any fashion-for-charity product, is the recognizable design. People want to not only donate, but show their contribution to charity.

H&M, having recently touched down in Japan, is even signing on celebrities like Katy Perry, Estelle, Robyn, Tokio Hotel, Dita Von Teese, N.E.R.D and Yoko Ono for their latest charity campaign, "Fashion Against Aids." 25% of the sales from this campaign will be donated to HIV/AIDS awareness programs for children, starting May 28th.

The benifits for charitable organisations in raising awareness is extremely beneficial.

"H&M and Fashion Against AIDS are so important to us because we could never reach so many young people on our own. AIDS is still very much a subject that's vitally important today. People build their attitude towards their sex lives when they're very young, so it's important for them to realize that safe sex is a vital part of that as early as possible." Ninette Murk, founder, Designers Against AIDS.

For those in Tokyo, Katy Perry will appear in an explusive performance in one of the H&M stores to launch Fashion Against Aids, and will be broadcast on hm.com live at 1pm CET.

Katy Perry Fashion Against Aids 

The Pigs' Pandemic

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The World Health Organization (WHO) raised its pandemic alert for the Swine Flu from phase 4 to phase 5 this morning - in other words, the world is but one step away from a world-wide pandemic.

The Swine Flu (technically called the 2009 H1N1), which was first detected in Mexico, is a hybrid of swine, avian, and human strains.  Originally a respiratory disease for pigs, it has mutated so that it can be passed from human to human easily.  No vaccine has yet been developed for it to this stage.  Countries in which cases of the Swine Flu has been verified include the United States, Mexico, Canada, Spain, United Kingdom, Germany, New Zealand, Israel, Austria, Peru, and Switzerland, with a total of 8 deaths have been caused up till now.

No better example illustrates this Flu's potential harm than WHO's urgent adjustments to its pandemic level.  The WHO has raised the pandemic alert from phase 3 to phase 5 during the past 4 days - from predominantly animal infections to widespread human infection.  The WHO categorizes its pandemic alerts as follows:

  • Phase 1: No viruses circulating among animals have been reported to cause infections in humans.
  • Phase 2: An animal influenza virus circulating among domesticated or wild animals is known to have caused infection in humans, and is therefore considered a potential pandemic threat.
  • Phase 3: An animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus has cause sporadic cases or small clusters of disease in people, but has not resulted in human-to-human transmission sufficient to sustain community-level outbreaks.
  • Phase 4: Verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause "community-level outbreaks".
  • Phase 5: Human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region.  Seen as a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.
  • Phase 6: The pandemic phase, characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5.  Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way.
    (Taken from the WHO Official Website: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html)

Reading the increasingly frightening news regarding the Swine Flu reminds me of what Hong Kong was like 6 years ago - when SARS ravaged the city and killed approximately 300 people, including patients and their doctors and nurses alike.  I remember the panic - SARS was getting out of control, and supermarkets started going out of stock as people were rushing to buy food.  Masks were completely sold out within the first few days, and we all spent weeks wearing masks to school before the Government ordered for the closing down of all schools in Hong Kong.  During those few weeks before the less-than-welcome holiday, we had to take our own temperature every single day before going to school to make sure none of us had a fever.  No one dared to go out from their houses those few weeks - if we did, we wore 3M's N95 masks, which had been designed for doctors for use during operations.  Residents of an entire apartment building were moved to the countryside since traces of SARS was found to have been flushed throughout the building through the sewage pipes, and one hospital was completely sealed off due to the outbreak of SARS there, and no one was allowed in or out.

And now, with the Swine Flu as an imminent threat, masks are on demand again.  I, personally - having lived through the SARS period, have been stocking up on masks and food.  Due to my experiences, perhaps I can offer some points where protecting yourselves from the Flu is concerned:

  • Always bring as mask with you, and wear it if possible - Depending on the stage your country is in, wearing a mask at all times might be a must.  However, if the situation is not overly bad, bringing one around and wearing it when someone coughs and you can't move away from them (i.e. in the train) would be a very good idea.
  • 3M's N95 masks are the safest, especially in crowded places - Although they tend to make you feel stuffy and relatively difficult to breathe, they are undoubtedly the best choice when it comes to protecting yourself from possible diseases circulating around in the air.  Of course, normal masks in convenience stores will suffice in places where there aren't an overly large number of people - but in crowded places such as schools and popular districts such as Shibuya, wearing an N95 mask would be a better choice.
  • Always wash your hands, and bring disinfectant swipes / gel with you at all times - In situations such as now where there is a high possibility of a pandemic threat, bringing disinfectant swipes or gel will allow you to clean your hands immediately, whether it be after you finish visiting a crowded area or before eating your food.  Human-to-human infection travels largely through touch - there could be remains of the disease or germs sitting right on the handle you were holding on to in the train.
  • 1-99 Bleach-Water Ratio - This was a ratio promoted by the government in Hong Kong during the SARS period: When cleaning your house, wipe everything with a 1-99 Bleach-Water ratio liquid.  Bleach contains extremely strong chemicals - pure bleach is strongly discouraged, as it can be harmful to our skin and health, thus the 1-99 ratio.
  • Sleep early, drink alot of water, and stay healthy - Despite the apparent trend that alot of the victims of the Swine Flu are otherwise healthy and young people, it is a good idea to keep ourselves in a fit shape, ready to fight the Flu should we encounter it.

Teaching English in Tokyo

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Looking for a quick way to earn a decent amount of money?

 

There are many companies/schools that hire English-speaking college students to teach English to Japanese children and adults. I myself have been working at a company called Catal (www.catal.jp) for over a year and a half now. Catal hires bilingual Japanese students from universities such as Waseda, Keio, ICU, and Sophia, and assigns them students to teach in either the Catal classrooms (located in both Shibuya/Jiyugaoka) or the students' homes. Some teachers are also asked to teach adults - in such cases, the teacher must visit his or her student's office. By working at Catal, I've had the opportunity to teach English to children of all ages, the Manager of Sales at Lehman Brothers (until it went bankrupt, of course!), and the President of Itoh Music Company. Teaching English is not only a good way to earn a lot of money in a short period of time (Catal pays teachers 2000 or 2500yen/hr for teaching children (depends on how many children you teach at one time) / 3000yen/hr for teaching adults) but also a good way to improve your own linguistic/communication skills. You can apply to Catal by visiting the website but please let me know if you have any other questions!

 

Gaba also offers English teaching jobs to Japanese college students

www.gaba.jp

 

If you are not Japanese and want an English teaching job, visit:

http://www.findstudents.net/

 

-Entry by Satomi

 

Shack here. Would you rather be a plumber or an actor? A lawyer or a blogger? There are obviously a ton of differences between the two, but a very fundamental one is the fact that actors and bloggers are scalable jobs, whereas lawyers and plumbers are not. Ben Casanocha, the 20-year-old writer, blogger, CEO, and wunderkind, has a great post on this:

Professions where you are paid by the hour are not scalable. A prostitute who charges $100 an hour only has 24 hours in a day. At some point, she will hit a ceiling on her earnings. Similarly, dentists, lawyers, contractors, bakers, and consultants can see only so many clients at a time.

By contrast, scalable professions allow you to make more money without an equivalent increase in labor / time. An author writes a book one time and his effort is the (basically) the same whether he sells 500 or 500,000 copies. A Hollywood actress need not show up at every screening of her movie to make money off it.

Career experts generally favor scalable professions.

Nassim Taleb, in The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, offers the opposite advice: pick a profession that is not scalable.

A scalable profession is good only if you are successful; they are more competitive, produce monstrous inequalities, and are far more random with huge disparities between efforts and rewards -- a few can take a large share of the pie, leaving others out entirely at no fault of their own.

One category of profession is driven by the mediocre, the average, and the middle-of-the-road. In it, the mediocre is collectively consequential. The other has either giants or dwarves -- more precisely, a very small number of giants and a huge number of dwarves.

Full post @ Ben Casanocha: The Blog.

Ben doesn't leave much to be said about scalability, but I find myself thinking that we make a similar gamble when we choose how much to specialize in our careers. Intense single-subject study, such as dentistry, nuclear engineering, or academics, provides job security and comparatively high wages, but requires a high initial investment of time and money, as well as the ability to develop your skills to a given, arbitrary level (to pass a certification board, bar exam, dissertation review, etc). Generalist fields such as the liberal arts give graduates a wide range of opportunities, but also a large amount of competition. Yes, you might make do great in human resources, marketing, or business development for that cool tech firm in Silicon Valley, but so would 1,000 other guys graduating with you.

The difference in generalist versus specialist career paths is the certainty of the skill required to achieve your goals. If you want to become a doctor, tenured professor, or electrician, you'll have an approximate idea of how hard it is before going in. You may misjudge your ability to pass a particular test or certifying agency, but the facts on that test or certifying agency are probably more or less public.

There's no book to study to join the publishing industry, no marketing bar exam. You get generalist jobs because of likability and results. Sound similar to a category above? Yup, getting a liberal arts BA is a lot like trying to make it as a writer, actor, blogger, or other scalable career. You may be paid by the hour rather than in royalties, but your job still depends highly on how much you stand out and how much people like you.

That said, the wage differential for liberal arts grads is much smaller than that of actors or authors. A English degree may be riskier than an accounting degree or plumbers' certification, but it's still a pretty small risk spread compared to performing, royalty, or pageview-powered jobs. The spread shrinks even less for bilingual students in Japan; our ability to teach English and translate brings the minimum post-graduate salary we can expect up by a factor of two to three. Liberal arts schools are a pretty good mix of risk and payout, and the flexibility of the education insures against a particular industry being outsourced or robotized.

Welcome!

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Welcome to The Waseda Business Association v0.2! This is a new test website built on Movable Type, a content management system by the awesome guys at Six Apart (bias alert: I intern for them). It’s got all sorts of nifty features, like commenting with your facebook account, and getting your own profile on the site, so please try them all out and let us know what you think.